Trump Is Running Out of Friends in Pennsylvania

1. Pennsylvania

“Bad things,” in the super-cool sense, as in Donald Trump losing a presidential election, happen in Philadelphia.

The most direct path to victory for Biden, going by polling averages, is for him to hold all the Clinton-won states and flip Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has been the tightest of these three races, making it the current tipping-point state. So even though Biden’s been having a good polling week (month, year), nothing should be as satisfying to Democrats as the two high-quality polls from Pennsylvania released earlier this week. One survey from ABC News and the Washington Post showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 54 to 45. Another by the New York Times and Siena College showed Biden leading Trump by … let’s see here … 9 points, 49 to 40. These were polls taken before the president made an ass of himself before tens of millions of people on national television. Biden’s lead over Trump in the state sits at 5.7 percent according to the RealClearPolitics polling average; Clinton’s lead heading into Election Day in 2016 was 1.9 points, and she lost the state by 0.7 points. So let’s just say it: There is not currently a majority or plurality of support for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, or in the United States. It’s becoming difficult, especially after Trump showed zero interest in the debate in reaching out to swing voters who are fleeing him, to see how such a majority or plurality could develop by Election Day. Trump knows it, and it’s why we all should prepare for dangerous games with democracy instead.

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