How Is It All Going to End?

2. Florida

Welcome to the fray, hostile foreign actors!

On Wednesday night, the FBI hastily assembled an evening press conference to deliver some news: It’s foreign interference time! FBI Director Christopher Wray and Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe accused Iran and Russia of obtaining registration data and sending fake, threatening emails to voters. And as with 2016, Florida voters were targets. Earlier this week, voters in (heavily Democratic) Florida counties received emails purportedly from the Trump-supporting, far-right group the Proud Boys, warning voters to vote for Trump “or else.” Ratcliffe, curiously, claimed during the press conference that these emails—the alleged work of Iran—were “designed to intimidate voters, incite social unrest and damage President Trump.” One second-order effect of threatening Democratic voters with violent attacks if they don’t vote for Trump is that it could be reported out and embarrass Trump, or even motivate voters to go to the polls. A first-order effect, though, is that it could intimidate Democratic voters with violent attacks if they don’t vote for Trump. In any event, Florida remains as competitive as ever, with Biden leading Trump by 2 percentage points in the latest polling average. To mentally prepare for Nov. 3, though, you should expect the state to be decided by two votes, not two points. (Also: Expect the last three Biden votes to be thrown out by the Supreme Court.)

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