The Seven Biggest Factors Working Against Donald Trump’s Reelection Bid

5. “Honesty”

A bellwether stat!

An interesting observation from CNN’s Harry Enten: In 2016, voters said Hillary Clinton was more “honest” than Trump by 3 percentage points, nationally. She won the popular vote by 2 points, nationally. Voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania said Trump was more honest, though, and he won those states. Polls asking the “honesty” question in 2020, meanwhile, are finding that Biden is considered more honest than Trump by about 10 to 12 percentage points, approximating his polling lead. If the “honesty” margin can be used as a proxy for the overall vote, it lays out a road map for Trump’s comeback: He just needs to convince an additional 10 to 12 percentage points of the electorate that he’s honest. Since that’s not in the cards, he needs to convince an additional 10 to 12 percentage points of the electorate that Biden is dishonest. This may all sound too cute by half. But so is the entirety of political analysis, and you all eat it up! “Honesty”—that’s the whole ballgame, science says so.

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