The Most Consequential Election of Your Lifetime Is Finally Here

4. Flooooooooorida

Do not let this state control your brain.

Thinking about Florida elections makes Democrats want to DIE. It broke Democratic hearts in 2000, of course. It also broke Democratic hearts in 2016, but so did a lot of states. Florida then had the nerve to be the one state that broke Democratic hearts in 2018 in an otherwise splendid year. This history is part of the reason why election obsessives (that’s you) don’t quite believe, say, the 2-point Biden win forecast on FiveThirtyEight, and it’s also why the alarms about lagging turnout among the low-propensity voters Democrats need in Miami-Dade County have been sounded. The Surge, despite having zero solid evidentiary reason to believe that Trump has a better shot than the candidate narrowly leading in the polls, also doesn’t trust this state whatsoever. Like Sabato’s Crystal Ball, we feel weirdly more confident about Georgia than Florida. Here’s the good news about Florida, though: If our superstitions are correct and Trump carries it, that’s OK! It is not vital to Biden’s electoral math. Once again: If Biden can hold Clinton states and take Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2^nd District, he needs only one the following states to win the election: Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, or Texas. What happens in Florida, with its complex and unique set of voting blocs, does not tell you what will happen in those other states (and if Biden does win Florida, Trump is finished).

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