In the final days of the presidential race, the polls paint a clear picture: former vice president Joe Biden has the advantage. Although Democrats worry about a repeat of 2016, when polls seemed to show Hillary Clinton on the path to victory, analysts largely agree things are looking better for Biden now than they were for the former secretary of state four years ago.
Democrats did get one piece of bad news on Saturday night: a top-tier poll showing Donald Trump with a seven-point lead in Iowa. But Biden does not need to win Iowa to win the presidency, and other surveys in recent days don’t have good news for Trump. A New York Times/Siena College poll of Pennsylvania—the likely tipping point state in the election—shows Biden ahead by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll of the state puts the former vice president ahead by seven points. The Washington Post does note, however, that per its survey, “Biden no longer holds a statistically significant advantage [in Pennsylvania], given the four-point margin of sampling error that applies to each candidates’ support.”
Analyzing the polls thus far, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver concludes that while Trump still has a chance of coming out ahead—a 10 percent chance in his estimation—it is far lower than it was in 2016. In an interview on ABC News’ This Week, Silver says that if Trump does end up winning “it would come down to Pennsylvania.”
The good news for Democrats is that Biden enjoys a clear lead in the two other Midwestern “blue wall” states that Clinton lost in 2016. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll in Wisconsin puts Biden up by 11 points—52 percent to 41 percent—while a CNN poll conducted by SSRS gives Biden an eight-point edge, 52 percent to 44 percent. And in Michigan, the latest CNN poll gives Biden a robust 12-point lead.
If Biden were to win all of the states Hillary Clinton won plus Wisconsin and Michigan, then he wouldn’t necessarily need to secure Pennsylvania to get the 270 electoral votes he needs to become president. Biden could get over top with Arizona and Nebraska’s second congressional district; in both places, Biden has more than a 70 percent chance to win, according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast. If Biden came up in short there, then he could still win if he came in first in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, or Texas.
According to the NYT/Siena College poll, Biden is up by six points—49 percent to 43 percent—in Arizona, and he’s up four in the state, 50 percent to 46 percent, per the latest CNN poll. CNN has Biden up six points in North Carolina, while NYT/Siena College has him up three. The race is narrower in Florida, where the NYT/Siena College poll has Biden up three whereas the Washington Post/ABC News poll has Trump ahead by two points. The Post/ABC poll does show a slight narrowing of Trump’s lead from last month, when Trump stood at 51 percent and Biden at 47 percent.
Nationally, Trump continues to lag far behind. The final NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, released on Sunday, shows Biden maintaining his double-digit lead over Trump—52 percent to 42 percent. Beyond the actual percentage of support, 60 percent of all voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
from Slate Magazine https://ift.tt/3oPhtM4
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