2020年5月15日 星期五

The Swing States Joe Biden Should Go All-In On


4. North Carolina

Some promising in-state trends for Democrats.

Here’s another regular heartbreaker for the Democrats, a state with whom it’s risky to become emotionally involved. Barack Obama narrowly won North Carolina in 2008, and Democrats sought to cement it as part of their Electoral College coalition by holding their convention in Charlotte in 2012. But then Romney carried the state by 2 percentage points in 2012, and Trump carried it by nearly 4 in 2016. In 2020, Republicans will be holding their convention in Charlotte as they seek to cement it as part of Trump’s Electoral College coalition. Can Democrats take it in 2020? Some recent developments within the state would suggest so. First, Democrats are fielding a competitive Senate candidate, Cal Cunningham, to compete against the state’s unpopular incumbent, Sen. Thom Tillis. The state’s Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, who’s also on the ballot in November, has seen his approval rating improve significantly under his management of the state’s coronavirus situation. Finally, the state’s other senator, Richard Burr, had his phone taken by the FBI this week as part of an insider trading investigation, an unwelcome atmospheric development for North Carolina Republicans broadly. Combined, these are either solid reasons for the Biden camp to invest heavily in North Carolina, or a baroque, almost cruel twist on North Carolina’s pattern of tricking Democrats out of their money.



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